There is a wind of change rapidly flowing through the Middle East, and while western media is generally supportive of the Arab dictatorships rapprochement with Israel one can’t help but wonder when not if we’ll see the backlash.
Such rapprochement has a 2 tiered strategy:
1- Foreign policy win for Trump in hope to aid his re-election with the Neo-con base approval boost
2- Arm twisting any future American president to continue an escalation path with Iran rather than rapprochement, peace and normalization.
This appears to be a very short sighted view by Arab countries and Israel, all of whom know they cannot defeat Iran on their own. With ISIS already threatening terror attacks on Saudi soil due to the shift in dynamics with Israel, one can only wonder what the true potential impact of such deals will be.
The Middle East seems to be set to become center stage for major escalations soon, the silence of some countries over the past few weeks has been deafening to the news of the Arab Israel tie normalization and silence in the Middle East usually means something is in the midst of happening. Here are some likely reactionary scenarios:
Attacks on Israeli tourists and businessmen in UAE & Bahrain as well as their business interests. UAE has long been a breeding ground full of spies by most countries agencies as a hub of communication and planning, it wouldn’t be very difficult to assassinate individuals as was shown by Israeli terror assassination of Hamas members on UAE soil.
Turmoil and decent in Bahrain or Sudan, due to the normalization of ties with Israel. Let’s not forget Sudan is a very militant country with militant ideology, the news of normalization with Israel will very unlikely to go down well with the average Sudanese or their military chain of commands. It is a very likely scenario where a military coup does take place to reverse such policy specially since Sudan and Israel have a history of actual military confrontation in the past.
Cyber attacks and economic espionage on any oil, gas pipeline or economic relation between the two countries.
Assassination of a notable Arab leader or king, which we believe to be the most likely scenario. This would send a message to the Arab world at large that such dynamic shifts in the regional geo politics needs the regional consensus rather than unilateral moves followed by arm twisting of other countries. We believe Bahrain or the UAE will be the center ground of such action with Bahrain the more likely candidate.
Many know in the region if such shift goes unanswered it will only have long term negative repercussions for the Middle East at large and solely benefit and encourage Israel’s terror, aggressive strategy of expansionism to further Arab lands.