Sweet! The Washington Post let the cat out of the bag when it reported that the goal of the US sanctions on Iran is regime change and not preventing nuclear weapons proliferation, and Panetta stated that Iran isn't actually trying to make nukes. Of course, someone then decided to press the Washington Post to issue a "correction" denying that the goal of the policy is regime change, and Panetta's people were quick to try to restate what he had stated... All, of course, quite familiar scenes to anyone who had been following the Iran-US relations close enough had already "discovered" the fact that the conflict was never really about nuclear weapons at all.
This, and the news that both the New York Times and the Washington Post were sufficiently inundated by reader pressure that they decided to "correct" their prior headlines which had falsely claimed that the IAEA had concluded that Iran was making nukes... and today was a good day. It shows that people are starting to pay attention to the small details that make a big difference.
I was going to start out writing about Olli H.'s (sorry I can't look up the spelling right now) interview in the Guardian, where he suggests a possible compromise of the US-Iran nuclear standoff. He recommends:
Here's a thought: The P5+1 could provide modern, safe and secure nuclear technology, fuel for the TRR and in the longer term, a more efficient research reactor. Iran could in turn relinquish its stock of enriched uranium.
Here's a thought, Olli: Iran already tried this. It was ignored like all of the rest of Iran's compromise offers. And here's another thought: why do you assume that the answer to what is essentially a political dispute can be found in a nuclear compromise? That's not where the answer lies, because that's not where the problem is - the problem between the US and Iran is first and foremost political. The nuclear issue is just a pretext, a cover for a political dispute.
And by know it should be obviously clear to anyone who has followed the history, that the goal of the political process now in force, is justifying imposing regime change in Iran even if by war. Nuclear weapons are just a pretext, the US has no intention of allowing this pretext to be taken away from it, and the last thing the US wants is to resolve the nuclear dispute with the regime there still in power.
Anyway, but then I read this article which features a few quotes from Trita Parsi (whose new book I have sadly thus far failed to acquire but definitely will do so soon) in which he asks a rather interesting question:
The United States wants Iran to stop enrichment to 20 percent, to turn over its stockpile of low enriched uranium, and to halt plans to make Fordo operational. "But what can they and the Europeans" offer in return? asked Parsi...
I had never thought of that question, really. What can they offer in return? I had never asked the question. OK, having established that the US is deliberately on a collision course with Iran of its own making, or more specifically, the makings of the lobbyists for Israel, what other option could the US pursue?
Naturally, until now I would have tossed out the list things that the Iranians would potentially want in return. They would want the sanctions lifted, trade normalized, an end to the ideas of fomenting a "Color Revolution" in Iran, etc. This would have seemed a self-evident list, requiring no more thought than needed to rattle it off. But then Trita's question made me wonder: what can the US offer, realistically speaking.
Here's what I'm wondering:
Is the US in a position to be able to actually offer anything to Iran which could make it worthwhile for Iran to abandon all or at least a significant chunk of its nuclear program?
And, if no - is the US on a path to confrontation with Iran because isn't capable of pursuing a different policy primarily and simply due to domestic constraints?
And it occurred to me that in reality no one in the US can offer anything that Iran would logically and presumably ask for. For example, on the question of removal of sanctions: Can Obama actually remove the sanctions? He has the legal authority to rescind some Executive Orders, of course, but that is only a small part of the web of sanctions imposed around Iran. He would have to go up against the US Congress, which as that Tom Friedman character recently said, is "bought and paid for" by Israel. So how would these sanctions be removed, exactly? How could the State Department actually get Adelson to stop funding think tanks that hire PhDs as advocates acting under a guise of scholarly objectivity to promote the idea that giving up on sanctions amounts to Chamberlain bowing to Hitler? How could Obama get editors to stop or start using keywords and phrases over and over again in their publications, "Nuclear Weapons Program", "Terrorism", etc.? How could he do any of this, even if he didn't have to worry about getting re-elected, because after all he can't do anything unless he's re-elected.
So the truth of the matter is that we are going to be in this "holding pattern" for a while until something changes that allows a change in US domestic political considerations with respect to Mideast policy. And that, first and foremost, means a resolution to not only the Israeli-Palestinian situation, and the role of Israel in shaping US foreign policy. In short, no time soon. Resolving the Iran-US issue - and I mean really resolving it - is going to require some fundamental, ground-shaking change: Something that fundamentally realigns the world's and domestic power structures. And until that happens we're going to continue seeing what happens when two countries butt heads for another decade, each time getting perilously closer to outright hostilities.
So, am I right? Assuming that Washington wants to resolve things with Iran peacefully and is willing to make the necessary compromises to do so, IS anyone in Washington really in a position to deliver on such promises and to implement such policies in the face of domestic opposition, where being 'weak on Iran' is blood in the water for the opposing campaign? To sell any sort of real change in Iran policy to the public, or at least those who pay for his election campaigning, the President would have to be willing to consume a great deal of political capital. Can he get the necessary laws passed, and other laws rescinding? How many votes in Congress would that require? How much fighting will be required for each vote? Its just not possible. No politician in the US can do this. Even assuming he could win some of the fights, it would consume far more resources than any politician can be willing to dedicate to a single cause.
Sorry, I don't see this happening. And, unlike others, I don't think that mass domestic public opinion can act as a counter-balance to the Israeli pressure for confrontation. Yes, Ron Paul's statements about the role of the US military in the Mideast may have had a popular response, but that's a vague, out of focus, visceral, feel-good response from public opinion that can be easily manipulated. It is not the sort of sentiment that gets translated into power and which can actually shape policy. Ron Paul, in short, is going to go away as simply a grumpy old man.
So, the US is simply not in a position to deliver on any potential offers to Iran that would be worth it for Iran to give in to US demands. And so the holding pattern continues, threats and noise but no overt conflict, though it appears to be more and more inevitable as the holding pattern degrades and falls apart.
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