Iran gasoline sanctions redux

So you've read the news about how two companies are supposedly refusing to sell any more refined gasoline to Iran. The funny thing is this: Iran refuses to stop enrichment and rely exclusively on foriegn uranium fuel for its reactors because it says that the energy supplies can be interrupted for political reasons and to blackmail Iran. So, we're stopping energy supplies in the form of gasoline for political reasons to Iran to blackmail Iran into giving up enrichment...thus proving their point.

Anyway, as for the claim that Iran "lacks refining capability": that's only because Iranians are massive consumers of state-subsidized gasoline, which is so cheap in Iran that neighboring countries are actually the beneficiaries of cheap smuggled Iranian gas. In other words, their problem is excess consumption due to the fact that gas costs less than water, and not inadequate supply. And anyway the Iranians have been addresing the refinery shortage by building new refineries, and have been addressing the consumption side of the equation by for example making cars that run on CNG and introducing gas rationing -- which while it was an unpopular move in the past, can now be blamed on foreign interference and sold as a nationalistic measure that people would support. Even then, there are countries which would not play ball with the US's gasoline sanctions -- Venezuela and Russia come to mind.  Anyway, the whole idea that if you punish the people, they will eventually rise up and topple their regime for you, is idiotic and repeatedly proven wrong. Cuba, a much smaller and less powerful country, has weathered 50 years of pointless US sanctions, after all.

But all of this of course misses the bigger point I've always tried to remind people of: the question of whether the gasoline sanctions on Iran would be effective or not is really not the point. THe proponents of sanctions don't care about that, really. To them, sanctions -- whether effective or not by themselves -- are really just an incremental step towards their ultimate goal, which is a war on Iran to suit Israel. As long as the US is imposing sanctions on Iran, they're not really engaging or talking to Iran -- which suits these Iran-hawks just fine because the last thing the hawks want to see is Iran and the US resolving their differences. And more importantly, as they force the Obama administration down the sanctions path step by step, their boxing-in the administration into a coercive, aggressive policy on Iran which ultimately will end in an all-out war.

For example, lets start with the gas sanctions. Everyone knows  that they will be ineffective, so the next step will consist of the Iran-hawks raising a clamour about the need to "tighten" the sanctions. This will inevitably lead to a maritime blockade and perhaps even
interception of shipping to Iran. And once that happens, its only a matter of time before we get to "pin point strikes" and sinking of ships etc -- in other wars, a shooting war, the real desire of the Iran hawks. By then, Obama will not be able to reverse the course (he probably can't do so even now) and another war will be a fait accompli. 

Comments

[mb]

Ray:
People of Iran, despite their various political ideologies, have shown repeatedly that do not succumb to threats easily and in case of a start of conflict, they do not run and hide. Again and again and again and again, as I have said before, the Zionist army is a murderous, criminal, and inhumane army with her objective NOT just being to protect an illegal regime called Israel but also to kill innocent Palestinians and to seize territories that do not belong to the Zionist regime. Israel will fall apart one day. Read some history. It would have gone to oblivion decades ago if it had not been for the unconditional support that they had received from Zionist-controlled US congress and White House and the handsome hundreds of billions of dollar they had received as gift from US taxpayers.

[Ray]

mb,
On the serious note though, deep down we, including the west and Israel know that a military approach is not an option, irrespective of the hot air blown by the US administration, quote “all options are on the table”. Iran is NOT another Iraq and that fact is well known amongst the major forces. This is why the enemies are so desperate to implode Iran in a psychological conflict aimed at dividing the nation. Hence the recent election fraud claims. People of Iran must be alert, the enemies are getting desperate.

[Ray]

mb,
What gives you the right to accuse the Zionists army murderous and terrorists. And just in case you give me that innocent and lawful assassination case which took place in that hotel in Dubai, well, don’t even go there, are you people deaf or what, they had British and Irish passports not Israeli ones! Dope..

[mb]

Be rest assured that the American proxy, Saddam, in 80s could not obliterate Iran and none of the goals of the Zionist regime, US, and Iraq were accomplished. And that was in 80s when Iran had a very weak army and Iranians were open heartedly volunteering to die in fronts to protect their motherland. 30 years later Iran is 100 times stronger. If these Zionist morons think that they could devastate Iran to oblivion, they better sit down and review the Isreal_Lebanon conflict of 4 years ago. Hezbollah, a nationalistic religious movement so badly humiliated the Zionist army, that they begged Condi Rice to mediate a cease fire. I have a piece of advice for Obama and his Zionist masters. Do not start a war with Iran. Israel may really be crushed to death. Good Luck Israel. You are much better at killing innocent and defenseless Palestinian children. But when it comes to Iran, Iranians will rip your ass apart and hundreds of Israeli POWs will not look good for your murderous and terrorist army.

[Ray]

As I have mentioned in my past comments, I genuinely think that a strike against Iran will immediately trigger a much bigger conflict in the region. In fact, the idea of other powers getting dragged into the same conflict would not be too unlikely.
On the issue of sanctions, I happen to remember queuing for basic necessities in Tehran during the Iran / Iraq war, I distinctly remember the long queues outside the gas stations, but as I’ve commented in the past, history has proven that Iranian people always rise above any pressure placed upon them by foreign forces. Just look at our progress, in every sector thinkable, thus far and compare us to the pre-revolution era when we were totally dependent on foreign imports.
Besides, where there’s a will, there’s a way, I bet that even now, several US companies have dealings with Iran. In any case, we are going through the biggest world-wide recession ever and in such circumstances, sanctions don’t take priorities.
Whatever the outcome, I would remind the Iranian nation that our action today, decides the future of the generations to come. We must not compromise the future of our kids and their kids, just so that we over-indulge ourselves in certain life luxuries.

[k_w]

Don't forget the China factor. China has invested about 600 to 800 bn. dollars in Iran's petrochemical industry, including the reconstruction of refineries and the building of at least one additinal facility. There are some agreements over a period of two decades, each worth $100 bn. So, sanctions are bound to fail. And if USrael really attacked these investments, I wouldn't bet a dime on Tel Aviv's existence.