Daniel Brumberg has what is a relatively thoughtful piece (in comparison to the usual raving lunacy one finds in the papers re Iran) in the Washington Post about the state of Iran's "opposition" challenges in which he concludes:
A strategy of state-controlled mobilization and fear mongering might sustain the regime for some years. But escalating economic woes that cut across class and geographic lines, combined with periodic challenges from the urban middle classes, could eventually create significant fissures in the regime itself.
I think Brumberg doesn't realize that this is hardly the first such challenge to the regime in Iran, and as in the past, the regime will probably find ways to coopt the "opposition" (however you define that term - he himself admits that the majority of the "opposition" are not really fundamentally opposed to the basic Islamic tenents of the regime.) In any case it would probably behoove the regime to find ways to channel dissent constructively through institutional means. I think the regime knows this full well as it has done so in the past. Brumberg has made the mistake of drinking the coolaid in thinking that Iran is a "populist dictatorship" without realizing that it has always existed as "a deeply
divided society that pits elites against elites, and popular constituencies against popular constituencies" and indeed this has been a strength of the regime.
Cyrus,
While various dictionaries define the word “regime” as simply a form of government, there is no doubt that these days it carries with it a negative connotation. While I think the Iranian government is probably deserving of this negative connotation, I don’t think it is any more so than many other national governments, including the American government or regime. But we don’t habitually refer to the US government as the US regime. Referring to the Iranian government as the Iranian regime validates the vilification of that government and adds legitimacy to anti-Iranian propaganda. Just a thought.
In light of my other comment on sabzi v. sabzeh, I am sorry if I am being particularly finicky about words today!
[I will therefore try to refer to all governments as regimes since I am a bit of an anarchist]
Posted by: Goli | March 06, 2010 at 01:49 PM