Iran's "second revolution" - again

Regimes come and go as none can last, but hype and wishful-thinking about the imminent collapse of the regime in Iran has always been with us:

Is Iran nearing point where revolution is spent?
Geoffrey Godsell.
The Christian Science Monitor July 30, 1980

Political infighting in Iran casts doubt over future
of revolution. John Kifner.
The New York Times Feb 9, 1981

Renewed unrest in mullah-ruled Iran – is a second
revolution beginning? Ralph Joseph.
The Christian Science Monitor August 25, 1981

Iran regime’s staying power is debated by observers
after new bombing attack. David Ignatius.
The Wall Street Journal Sept 1, 1981

In revolutionary Iran: rising discontent: food and
freedom are in short supply as Muslim change and war
take a toll. Claude van England.
The Christian Science Monitor Oct 6, 1982

War could threaten long-term stability of Iran regime.
Claude van England.
The Christian Science Monitor Feb 27, 1985

Iran regime suffering its worst crisis; war, economy,
succession void plague nation. William Tuohy.
Los Angeles Times July 10, 1988

Discontent with revolution emerges in post-Khomeini
Iran. Patrick E. Tyler.
The Washington Post July 16, 1989

Painful rise in prices stirs discontent in Iran.
The New York Times August 3, 1991

Iran’s revolution grows old; after 14 years, Islamic
rules faces apathy, discontent, infighting. Caryle
Murphy.
The Washington Post Feb 12, 1993

Inflation fuels discontent against Iran’s government.
The New York Times Nov 20, 1994

In Iran, the revolution unravels. (economic conditions
in Iran) Robin Wright.
Los Angeles Times Dec 2, 1994

The revolution erodes in rural Iran. (growing
disenchantment with religious rulers) Kayaton Ghazi.
The New York Times Feb 18, 1995

Second revolution brews in Iran; the crucial support
of the poor and merchants is being undercut by
economic reforms. Lamis Andoni.
The Christian Science Monitor April 12, 1995

Youthful cravings are aging Iran’s revolution; As
ideology dies, voices of dissent grow louder. John
Daniszewski.
Los Angeles Times March 26, 1996

Iran discontent rises as oil-based economy falls.
(International Pages) Douglas Jehl.
The New York Times Dec 13, 1998

Time is running out for Tehran regime. (pro-democracy
movement in Iran is growing)(Column) Sandra Mackey.
Los Angeles Times July 23, 1999

Discontent Simmers in Iran. (Editorial)
Los Angeles Times June 12, 2001

Iran: Soccer or politics or both? (800 arrested during
rioting after Iran lost World Cup)(International
Pages)
The New York Times Oct 23, 2001

In Iran, an angry generation longs for jobs, more
freedom and power. (International Pages) Amy Waldman.
The New York Times Dec 7, 2001

Iran’s next revolution. (need for US support to help
Iranians fight government’s repressive
measures)(Column) Michael A. Ledeen.
The Wall Street Journal June 5, 2002

Iran’s third wave. (the third generation in Iran is
expected to begin another revolution)(Column) Thomas
L. Friedman.
The New York Times June 16, 2002

The coming revolution in Iran. (influence of the
Shiite theocracy and the mullahs will soon crumble
The Wall Street Journal July 29, 2002

In Iran, a ’second revolution’ gathers steam; Ten days
of pro-democracy protests spur militants to counter
with a show of conservative force in the streets.
(WORLD)
The Christian Science Monitor Nov 29, 2002

Iran’s failed revolution. (Ayatollah Ruhollah
Khomeini)(Editorial)
The New York Times Feb 10, 2003

Iran: Ripe for Revolution? (EDITORIAL)
The Christian Science Monitor June 16, 2003

Pending Regime Change in Iran. EDITORIAL
The Christian Science Monitor Jan 13, 2004

Iran’s revolution at 25: out of gas; Wednesday’s
silver anniversary marks a peak of political
disillusionment. (WORLD)
The Christian Science Monitor Feb 11, 2004

People ask me why I don't really cover the demonstations in Iran on this blog. As I have said before, this blog is not a news agency, and it is limited to my own interests which happen to be foreign affairs specifically the nuclear issue. However, if you're curious what I think about the events in Iran, the answer is... meh. I'm not overly excited. For one thing this is really an internal conflict between factions of the same regime, and secondly, the hyped reporting about a "second revolution" is hardly new as seen above. A regime is a creation of Man, and as such is never ever-lasting. Even if there is a "second revolution" in Iran, Iran's foreign policy won't chage, just as things didn't fundamentally change when the Shah was replaced by the IRI. No Iranian government can afford to give up their nuclear program, and no Iranian government can afford to be seen laying down for Israel.

Comments

[rapidshare full]

Excellent! The western regimes and their acolytes in the media have been talking about a second counter-revolution from the onset. I think it just goes to show just how scared they are from a powerful Iran and what it means for their hegemonic interests.

[Ali]

We don't see any positive news about Iran. The world media including al jazeera never portrays anything good about Iran. The environment, the people, the culture. Nothing positive is ever reported. The world media is very partial.

We are very pleased to articles by Cyrus and some at www.globalresearch.ca
Even China and Russia supposed to be friendly with Iran never mentions anything good about Iran.

[Persian Lion]

Mr.Safdari is correct in not covering the daily "regime change" and "next revolution" wishful thinking matra, mostly emanating from Zionist media, ageing frustrated exiled community (vatan foroush) and "western intelligence" (most of whom could not find Iran on a map let alone predict its complex political future). In the past decade, since the US invasion of Iraq there has been a lot of sophomoric "analysis" by so-called experts, armchair generals and downright idiots who have taken it as their daily chore of predicting the imminent collapse of the Islamic Republic. These delusional fools would have even made Mark Twain blush with these audacious premature exaggerated news of Iran's death.

Anyone who has visited Iran knows otherwise. I beleive this frenzy of delusional "regime change" predictions are part of the broader psy-ops against Iran as it emerges as rising power in the region and presents a challenge to US and Zionist agenda of energy domination and strategic hegemony. Anyone with half a functioning brain should dismiss all this "coming revolution" nonsense. In all objective assessment, the Islamic Repubic has created stable and strong institutions and the silent majority of Iranians are not opposed to the regime in principle. The US created disasters and total violent societal and national demolition of Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan has given pause to the fancy of even the most vociferous "regime change" aspirants and advocates in exile.

Iran has always had a very well developed national identity and the past 30 years of sanctions, war and relative isolation has even increased these nationalistic trends to the point of xenophobia and strengthened the regime as it faces daily threats from its enemies, both domestic and foreign. In reality, most Iranians would prefer security and an evolutionary hybrid socio-political liberalization rather than a foreign imposed "revolution" and wholesale destruction of their ancient land, courtesy of Pentagon. This is not 1953 and in the youthful educated population of 76 million Iranians, finding another Shaboon Bemokh and Zahedi would be impossible if not incredulous.

[Reza Esfandiari]

Excellent! The western regimes and their acolytes in the media have been talking about a second counter-revolution from the onset. I think it just goes to show just how scared they are from a powerful Iran and what it means for their hegemonic interests.

[lidia]

"no Iranian government can afford to be seen laying down for Israel"?

I thought that Shah was a pal of Israel, and now Zionists rememeber his rule as an example of "good relations" with good natives of the ME.

Or do Zionists lie in this case as well?

[The Shah was not as much of "good friend of Israel" as widely portrayed -- see YouTube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQgZ3oLp_WY ]

[Layla B]

I agree ! I think the point you make here underlines the problem with general assumptions made not only in the West but also in the Arab world, about what motivates Iranian foreign policy. I believe it is essentially motivated by a 'realist' pragmatism and not the religious fundamentalism we hear about so much - although to be fair, Ahmadinejad has done a good job of disguising this! Accordingly, there is logical reason why, lets say a ' reformist' led Iran would change the current foreign policy -since the interests remain the same!

[mb]

I love it! If you write all of predictions similar to what you have done (read psychological warfare) you may be able to publish a 100 or 200 or .... hundred page book. Great job Cyrus.