More on the alleged Iran election "fraud"

As a follow-up on my previous post listing the claims and counterclaims of election fraud in Iran --

Reza Esfandiari sent me a report analyzing the allegations of fraud in the Iran elections. Conclusion:

Statistical studies have proved inexact and inconclusive as far as detecting any real evidence of fraudulent manipulation. If cheating did occur, it must have been localized and generally restricted to remote parts of the country where the population levels would not have been significant enough to sway the final outcome –We thus conclude that the 10th Iranian presidential election is a genuine reflection of the will of the Iranian people and that Dr Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the duly elected president of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Read their full report here.(pdf)

Reza also turned me onto Thomas Lotze's analysis of the statistical claims about fraud in Iran here.

As a side note, I should mention that many people, when confronted with this evidence of an absence of election fraud in Iran, simply then change the subject and say, well, the point is that the regime is illegitimate and should be toppled.

Well, you're entitled to your opinions about the regime, but not about the facts, and the fact is that there is no real evidence of election fraud in Iran.

Comments

[Reza Esfandiari]

I agree with Cyrus. I suspect much of the "circumstantial evidence" has either been exaggerated or is part of a disinformation campaign that was set in place well before the election. I think its obvious, with hindsight, that Mousavi-Hashemi-Khatami had decided that if Ahmadinejad won, they would contest the poll even if there was no evidence for it. Some have even suggested that the whole election drama resembles that of the color revolutions in Ukraine,Georgia and also Serbia - there, the opposition claimed the government had rigged the poll and then removed it by getting supporters onto the streets and with the help of western intelligence.

Part of the problem for the Mousavi people to answer is HOW the election was rigged:

1) Were the numbers made up?
2) Were the tallies switched between Ahmadi and Mousavi as appeared on www.mowj.ir on June 13th?
وزارت کشور جای موسوی را با احمدی‌نژاد عوض کرد
3) Were the figures massaged in favor of Ahmadi by the MOI?
4) Were there serious irregularities like ballot stuffing and tombstone voting?

When you can agree on just how the election was rigged, I'll take you seriously.

[Pirouz]

Cyrus, you've never addressed the facts relating to circumstantial evidence, such as the select media and communications blackout before and after the election, the public declaration by a prominent cleric condoning manipulations of elections, the public warning against a velvet coup by a leading officer of the IRGC, the ongoing trials of alleged agents of foreign manipulation intent on a velvet coup, and the list goes on.

You've been silent about these events, even though the basis of most of the current charges directly relate to Iran's foreign policy and international affairs. Why?

[Cyrus Resonds:
1- I am not required to address everything that happens in the world, as I neither have the time nor the inclination, but lack of commentary is not necessarily an endorsement, especially when plenty of other better qualified people have opined on the matters in many other blogs. Not sure if the current trials have a direct relation to int'l affairs either.
2-the communications blackout and the warnings about velvet revolutions do not constitute election fraud, and are pretty normal in Iran anyway, and so they're not very relevant to the issue of whether there was election fraud in Iran
3- The alleged condoning of election fraud by a fatwa is a ridiculous rumor. If anyone can provide actual evidence, fine.
Incidentally, I happen to know some of the people on trial, and have aquaintances who were/are imprisoned.]