Iran's elections -- my sober views

People have been asking me why I don't write more about the presidential elections in Iran. The answer is that I prefer to keep my mouth shut about things that I don't know about. And the fact is that no one can predict the outcome nor its effects such as relations with the USA. Remember, not one of the many self-important talking heads that are being widely quoted in the Western press foresaw the election of Ahmadinejad in the first place (nor the election of Khatami before him...nor the 1979 Islamic Revolution!)

Nor am I sure that the election will make a real difference in foreign affairs, especially around the nuclear issue. Remember, despite the Western media's attempt scaremonger about Iran's nuclear program by connecting the program to the "crazy" Ahmadinejad (something that Ahmadinejad himself encouraged too) the fact is that Iran's nuclear program is not controlled by Iran's presidents. It didn't begin with Ahmadinejad, and it won't end when he leaves office. The program started under the previous regime, under the Shah, and will continue even if there is another revolution in Iran, because it is driven by strategic and economic factors that are independent of the identity of individual politicians.

Note also that most of what passes as analysis of the election is really wishful thinking of the pundits themselves. Mousavi has become a media darling in the West supposedly because he is a "reformist" and represents a constituency who is relatively secular, wealthy and upper-class ... but I can't help remember that US analysts were not able to forsee the 1979 Islamic Revolution specifically because they too were limited in interacting with the Westernized elites in Iran, and never bothered to go to "the street" to see what was really going on. So, with this emphasis on Mousavi, are we making the same mistake again?

Finally, some have suggested that all the talk about corruption has brought the very legitimacy of the IRI itself into question. They find it ironic that Ahmadinejad, a creature of the Islamic regime, would criticize the same regime. Well, its not ironic -- it is normal. Rather than delegitimizing the revolution, the fact that someone like Ahmadinejad can raise these issues can also be viewed as a indicator of the legitimacy of the regime. How you interpret it really depends on your own preconceptions. Naturally, people who have been waiting for the fall of the IRI view every event there through a particular lens and rush to conclude from it that the IRI has been delegitimized and will fall. But that's wishful thinking more than objective analysis.

Comments

[samuel welsh]

Iran needs to get rid of that evil armajad and connect with its people and the world through understanding.

[Hassan Ali]

awww, what a pathetic attempt to legitimize this revolution and the crimes it has committed against ordinary Iranians. Oh wait, that's a western thing to say according to you.